Towards the end of the year, the negotiations on coal price in 2020 will enter a critical period. There is still more than a week before the opening of the 2020 Winter National Coal Fair on December 4th. On November 25th, 11 Chinese coal giants such as the National Energy Investment Group Co., Ltd. jointly "voiced" and proposed a price stabilization. People in the industry believe that the current supply and demand of coal is generally loose, but the Northeast, Southwest, Two Lakes and One River and other regions are experiencing tension during the peak period of coal use. According to the plan, next year's structural optimization of the industry will increase, eliminate backward production capacity, and promote mergers and reorganizations. In the future, the output of large-scale modern coal mines in the country will increase.
Yandian Coal's annual negotiation enters the critical period of adjustment
As in previous years, in the 2020 power coal contract negotiations, price is still the focus of both parties' attention and games.
The proposal issued jointly by 11 Chinese coal companies proposes that the country's policies and measures to stabilize the market be fully implemented, continue to adhere to and continuously improve capacity reduction replacement, peak shaving and emergency capacity reserve, medium and long-term contracts, and "base price + floating price" Pricing mechanism, minimum and maximum inventory, calming abnormal price fluctuations and corporate credit evaluation and other systems ensure that coal prices remain in the green range.
"The coal medium- and long-term contract system and the 'basic price + floating price' pricing mechanism have become ballast stones and stabilizers for the stable operation of the coal industry." Zhang Hong, Secretary of the Disciplinary Committee of the China Coal Industry Association, in the 2020 winter national coal trade on November 25 At the press conference, the conference said that since 2017, the medium and long-term contract price has been around 570 yuan / ton, and currently it is 553 yuan / ton. The market price has remained in the green range. Over 70% of this year's coal contracts are from the China Long-term Association, of which the three-year long-term agreement is not a minority, with a base price of 535 yuan / ton. From the situation in the first three quarters, the compliance rate was above 90%.
The proposal emphasizes the need to establish the concept of long-term development and coordinated development, adhere to the signing of medium and long-term contracts as the top priority of marketing, and adhere to the "basic price + floating price" medium- and long-term contract pricing mechanism. The three-year and long-term contracts that have been signed must adhere to the principle of good faith management, fulfill social responsibilities, strictly fulfill coal sales contracts, and further improve the medium and long-term contract redemption rate. Carry out the joint work of coal production and transportation in 2020 as soon as possible, sign more middle and long-term contracts, strive to create a good social atmosphere of honesty and trustworthiness, and lay a solid foundation for the establishment of a harmonious community of shared prosperity for upstream and downstream coal enterprises.
Guo Guotai Junan analyst Zhai Jun said that near the end of the year, most coal mines in the Shaanxi and Mongolian regions began to actively reduce production capacity by means of production shutdown and maintenance, coupled with major safety inspections, the release of short-term supply side has narrowed. From the perspective of demand, with the arrival of the heating season, the daily consumption of power plants began to rise seasonally, but the inventory is still relatively high, and there is no upward pressure on the spot price of coal. According to the latest situation of each indicator, the long-term contract price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal in December was 546 yuan / ton, which was 7 yuan / ton lower than the data in November.
紧张 Northeast, Southwest, and other regions may have tight supply and demand
Behind Yandian Coal's annual price game is the judgment of the future coal market. "The current supply and demand of the coal market is generally loose, and next year is basically stable." Zhang Hong said.
All these changes are related to structural reforms on the supply side. Data show that from 2016 to the end of 2018, the coal industry has accumulated 810 million tons of excess coal capacity, and this number will continue to grow this year.
记者 "Economic Reference" reporter learned that many provinces have completed this year's coal capacity reduction task in advance. The Hebei Provincial Development and Reform Commission stated that from 2016 to 2019, the province's total withdrawal of coal was 48.07 million tons, and the periodic tasks were exceeded. Shanxi will also complete the provincial acceptance of coal overcapacity in the province by the end of November. By then, its target of overcoming coal overcapacity during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to be completed one year ahead of schedule.
According to Zhang Hong, through the effective elimination of coal excess capacity, the basic balance of market supply and demand was achieved. This year, some large mines have gradually released advanced production capacity. From January to October, the country ’s raw coal production was 3.06 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. Coal imports were 280 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%. The national coal consumption only increased by 0.8% year-on-year, so coal supply and demand are generally loose, but the coal production in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia accounts for nearly 70% of the total coal production in the country. Coal production is low, and structural tensions will inevitably occur at the peak of coal use.
The relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission the next day said that the current national coal supply and demand is generally balanced, and the demand for heating coal in Northeast China has increased significantly. Aiming at the supply of coal resources in the Northeast region, since July this year, various relevant departments, localities and enterprises have begun preparations and adopted comprehensive measures to implement coal sources and improve coal storage levels. At present, the available coal storage days for key power plants in Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang are all over 24 days, which is 6 to 10 days higher than the same period last year, and coal for residential heating is better guaranteed.
继续 Merger and reorganization continue to advance
With the continuous elimination of excess capacity, the coal industry structure is also constantly optimized. According to the data provided by Zhang Hong, the number of coal mines nationwide has been reduced from more than 12,000 in 2015 to more than 5,600 at present, and the proportion of large modern coal mines has increased significantly, and it is estimated that it has now accounted for about 80% of the country's total coal production.
At the same time, great progress has been made in coal mergers and reorganizations, new industry development, and transformation and upgrading, and industry efficiency has picked up. In 2015, the profits of coal enterprises above the national scale were only 44.1 billion yuan, and most of them lost money. In the first nine months of this year, the profits of the coal enterprises above the national scale reached 216.5 billion yuan, and the profits of large coal enterprises accounting for 70% of the national coal output were 112.4 billion yuan. yuan.
"The structural reform of the coal supply side will be advanced next year. To achieve real transformation and upgrading and achieve high-quality development, the road of deepening reform must continue." Zhang Hong believes that 300,000 next year and the "14th Five-Year Plan" period. Small coal mines below ton / year will continue to be closed, while some coal mines with a production capacity below 900,000 tons will be further depleted. It is expected that the proportion of the output of large-scale modern coal mines in the country will increase in the future.
It is understood that as of August this year, China still has about 2,100 coal mines below 300,000 tons per year, and the task of eliminating outdated production capacity and eliminating invalid and inefficient supply is still heavy. The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the National Energy Administration and the National Coal Mine Safety Supervision Bureau jointly issued the “Working Plan for Classified Disposal of Coal Mine Below 300,000 Tons / Year”, which aims to reach the national The number of coal mines below 10,000 tons / year has been reduced to less than 800 sites.
Coal merger and reorganization will also be further promoted. As early as the beginning of 2018, the "Opinions on Further Promoting the Merger, Reorganization, Transformation and Upgrade of Coal Enterprises" proposed that, by the end of 2020, it would strive to form a number of 100 million-ton extra-large coal enterprise groups with strong international competitiveness throughout the country.
And this year, a number of documents including the `` Key Points for Coal Overcoming Overcapacity in 2019 '' also clearly will continue to promote the strong coalition of large coal enterprises, encourage large coal enterprises to merge and restructure small and medium enterprises, and further improve safety, environmental protection, energy consumption, Process and other mining standards and production levels. Industry analysts pointed out that some central enterprises have also started to withdraw from the relevant coal industry. It is estimated that this part of coal enterprises will undergo mergers and acquisitions and reorganizations in the future. The merger and reorganization of the coal industry has accelerated, which is a general trend for future development.
Source: Economic Reference
